Runaway train 🚂

Happy Monday. Are you tired of hearing about HS2? Well, based on the project forecasting to be £60-£80 billion pounds over budget, we’re paying about £100bn for a rail line to Birmingham. Here’s some alternatives for £100bn instead if only we could turn the clocks back:

1. Send every person in Manchester to space, twice. A ticket on SpaceX’s Starship estimated around £200,000. (Some Mancs may offer their tickets to send the football team one way).

2. Give each and every person in the UK roughly £1,492 in cash.

3. Build 1,000 Hogwarts castles. Estimated cost to build Hogwarts for real is £100 million. Just don’t replace the Hogwarts Express with HS2.

4. Host Eurovision every year for the next three centuries. At a cost of £30m per event, you’d have enough for Eurovision until the year 2300.

MARKETS

Data: Google Finance, 5-day Market Close

Notable UK earnings this week: Currys (CURY), Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG), Ricardo (RCDO).

Notable US earnings this week: Constellation Brands (STZ), MSC Industrial (MSM), Unifirst Corp (UNF), Barnes & Noble (BNED).

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PROJECT WATCH

🔌 Geotechnical surveys set to start for subsea electricity ‘superhighway’ Eastern Green Link 1. Read more

🏗️ Ballymore selected for Crossrail construction site transformation. Read more

🌊 Survey work begins for Orsted’s Isle of Man offshore wind. Read more

BUSINESS & FINANCE

Chinese choosing UK for former US exports
If you're wondering why your latest online bargain from Shein felt mildly suspiciously inexpensive, it's not just your keen eye for a sale. Chinese exports to the UK jumped by 16.1% in May—making it the biggest leap since early 2022 and enough to make even the most tight-fisted Chancellor twitch. The timing? Not a coincidence. With Trump’s tariff tantrum back in full swing across the Atlantic, it seems the UK has become Plan B for Beijing.

Of particular concern is steel, where the fear isn’t so much mild undercutting as a full-on metal stampede. Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has thrown his weight—or at least his pen—behind Trade Remedies Authority proposals to keep a lid on cheap Chinese steel. UK Steel is already celebrating the move like England equalising to take it to a penalty shootout… so, cautiously.

Context-wise, the US is very much the cause and the consequence here. Chinese goods heading Stateside dropped by 34% year-on-year in May alone, thanks to Trump inflating tariffs like he’s back in The Apprentice, only this time more MAGA, less business casual. Washington may have announced a temporary "truce", but most imports from China are still slapped with 55% tariffs, which makes the UK's open arms look shockingly inviting.

But let’s not pretend this is all a free lunch. Yes, imported bargains may help cool inflation, but they could also kneecap UK manufacturing. It's the monetary version of Love Island: another pretty face shows up (cheap imports), and suddenly everyone forgets who they coupled up with (British industry)..

Shell and BP’s will they, won’t they?
It’s a bigger “will they, wont they?” than Love Island. Shell has firmly denied it's in talks to buy BP, following swirling rumours of a historic £60bn megamerger that could birth one of the biggest oil giants on the planet. The source? A juicy Wall Street Journal report that got the City all hot under the collar. Shell, ever the cool customer, brushed it off as mere “market speculation.” You know, just your average pub chat... but with billions at stake.

Still, speculation’s a tenacious little gremlin, and they didn’t say there hadn’t been any talks. BP – battered, bruised, and bewildered after years of green U-turns, leadership scandals, and more plot twists than a Line of Duty finale. Shell’s record-smashing profits have made it an obvious suitor in the eyes of twitchy analysts. One titan’s turmoil is another’s takeover opportunity.

POLITICS

Carbs, Calais
In a coordinated bid to lighten the national load - calorically, residentially, and politically - the UK government is launching reforms that touch your shopping basket, your Highland holiday plans, and even the Channel.

First up: the weekly shop.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting says supermarkets are about to become silent allies in the war on obesity. Under a “world-first” plan, food retailers will be nudged to stock, price, and promote healthier food. Shoppers won’t be forced to give up biscuits, but those biscuits might be placed two shelves higher and priced less competitively, a real rich tea dunk for public health.

Supermarkets will be required to publish sales data on nutritional quality, and could face penalties for failing to shift enough healthy items. According to Streeting, cutting just 216 calories a day, roughly a fizzy drink, could halve national obesity. Even 50 calories a day could lift 340,000 children out of the danger zone.

The initiative forms part of a wider 10-Year Health Plan aimed at prevention over treatment, in hopes of relieving the NHS spending over £11bn a year on obesity-related conditions.

Le swap
In an effort to calm the waters, the UK and France are reportedly close to finalising a “one-in, one-out” migrant deal aimed at curbing small boat crossings. It’s part diplomacy, part deterrent, and fully the first of its kind.

Under the proposal, someone deported from the UK could be swapped for a person in France with a legitimate right to settle in Britain. The pilot plan represents a notable shift in France’s posture toward the Channel crisis, having previously resisted such arrangements. But don’t expect bipartisan applause.

High-demand-lands
Councillors in the highlands have proposed turning the entire region into a short-term let control zone, meaning that Airbnbs and similar rentals would need both a licence and planning permission. With over 7,000 short-term lets already licensed and house prices outpacing local wages, councillors argue that it’s time to prioritise residents over rentals.

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ACROSS THE POND

Federal reserve (their BoE) to hold rates
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, has declared it's not the time to consider lowering interest rates. Apparently, the effects of US policy changes, akin to trying to solve a Rubik's cube blindfolded, remain an enigma. With the economy playing out like an unfinished Sherlock Holmes mystery, Powell insists on keeping rates between 4.25% and 4.5% for now, because who doesn’t love a good suspense?

Donald Trump's tariffs are said to have the potential to rattle the economy, so Powell is set to let it play out. While there could be some short-lived inflation because of these tariffs, it may also become a not-so-fleeting visitor, reminiscent of those 'transitory' price hikes post-pandemic. The spectre of rising prices looms much like the Great British weather – unpredictable at best.

Despite Trumpian bluster, Powell prefers his rates unchanged. A potential tariff-inspired economic hiccup is expected to peak later this summer, turning the marketplace into a scene more chaotic than Oxford Street on Boxing Day. Nonetheless, Powell maintains the Federal Reserve isn't swayed by politics or presidential petulance.

So, how did the Tesla Robotaxi do?
Last week we told you about the launch of driverless Tesla Model Ys zigzagging around Austin, Texas, playing chauffeur to a privileged few—like a dystopian episode of Downton Abbey. The cockpit is unmanned, and the magic begins at $4.20 per ride. Naturally, for now, this techno-ballet is exclusive to Tesla bigwigs and influencers.

Tesla’s Robotaxi launch went live on Sunday, spilling tantalising glimpses of the driverless dreams amidst video clips from those who received the Willy Wonka–esque golden tickets. While the future of public access remains as unclear as the future of the BBC licence fee, the initial foray for today’s pioneers was largely smooth, with some eyebrow-raising lessons learned.

However, it wasn't all tea and biscuits. Our robotic chauffeurs, disoriented at times like a shopkeeper skipping a 24-hour clock, swerved into oncoming lanes and danced their indicator-flicker fandango without quite knowing what the music was. Thankfully, there's usually a Tesla employee around ready to hit an obscure button, reminiscent of a ‘Get out of Brit Awards Free’ card.

The AI-driven cabs bore witness to exciting moments of decency: yielding to ambulances and pausing thoughtfully for a dawdling pedestrian, a miraculous blend of artifice and altruism.

TECH

Kicking off: Robo-football-e
In Beijing, humanoid robots made their debut on the pitch in China’s first fully autonomous football tournament. No humans on joysticks, no remote help, just robots walking, wobbling, chasing balls, and scoring goals using only sensors and AI.

The event marks a warm-up for the World Humanoid Robot Sports Games in August, which promises not just football, but track events, gymnastics, and robot synchronised dancing. Yes, really.

Staying in the mainland, Chinese tech giant Xiaomi had itself a blockbuster week. Its new YU7 electric SUV received 240,000 pre-orders in under 24 hours, 200,000 of those in the first three minutes alone. Priced from £25k and boasting an 835km range, the YU7 is already being hailed as a serious Tesla Model Y rival.

But Xiaomi didn’t stop there. At its “Human x Car x Home” event, it also launched a sleek pair of AI-powered smart glasses. They outshine Meta’s Ray-Ban collab in battery life, camera specs, and functionality, and come equipped with electrochromic lenses that change shade on demand. If the specs hold up, they might be the best smart glasses on the market.

The Internet gets a new firewall
Starting July 25, all adult sites in the UK, from Pornhub to chat-based platforms and even gaming services that host adult material, must implement “highly effective” age verification systems. These checks can include credit card authentication, open banking, and facial age scans, to keep adult-only sites adult-only.

The changes fall under the Online Safety Act (OSA) and mark a major policy shift: sites that don’t comply risk fines or outright bans in the UK. Importantly, the law also insists these checks not compromise adults’ privacy or access to legal content.

Charities like the NSPCC welcomed the move, citing the link between porn access and sexual harassment in schools. The backdrop? 8% of UK children aged 8–14 accessed porn last month, according to Ofcom.

Made not so much in America
Less than two weeks after launch, the Trump T1 smartphone has already dropped its “Made in the USA” tagline from official materials. Visitors to Trump Mobile’s site will now find the phrase replaced with softer terms like “American-Proud Design” and “brought to life in the USA”.

Despite this, the Trump Organisation insists the phone is American-made, and that “speculation to the contrary is inaccurate”. It’s not the first time Trump-linked products have changed their country of origin under pressure. But if the T1 phone is “brought to life” in America, it seems that life begins… somewhere else.

WORLD

Minerals, militias & mistrust
A new peace deal for DR Congo and Rwanda was signed in Washington this week. The agreement calls for the disarmament and “conditional integration” of armed groups.

With the region rich in coltan and other minerals that keep the global tech machine ticking, Kinshasa has reportedly offered resource access in exchange for US-backed security guarantees.

Budapest, pride and protest
It was a weekend of umbrellas and uprisings, one soaked in monsoon downpour, the other in defiance and glitter.

In Budapest, a record 200,000 people marched in Pride, brushing off Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s legal threats and face-recognition fines like confetti. His government tried to ban “homosexual propaganda” under a new “child protection” law, but the crowd had other plans. Rainbow flags, bubble guns, and full-volume solidarity turned the city into a moving statement.

In Bangkok, the placards were soggier but no less pointed. Thousands gathered at Victory Monument to call for the resignation of PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra after a leaked phone call with Cambodian power-broker Hun Sen revealed her referring to Thai military leaders as show-offs. Awkward.

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